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Who The Heck Is Winning South Carolina Anyway? June 17, 2007

Posted by fitsnews in 2008 Presidential Primaries.

voting booth


FITSNews – June 17, 2007 – A week ago, we read in The State newspaper that Rudy Giuliani was ahead in the polls in South Carolina. Five days ago, we read in The Greenville News that John McCain was in the lead. Today, The State is saying there’s a new poll out that has former Senator Fred Thompson out in front. The same poll also showed Illinois Senator Barack Obama with a solid nine-point lead over Hillary Clinton, despite the fact that most recent polls have shown Clinton enjoying a similar – if not larger – margin over Obama.

So what gives? Why are the results of presidential polls in South Carolina suddenly so all over the place?

Our guess is that with the election still seven months away, most South Carolinians just haven’t thought about it all that much yet. Either that or people are really dumb down here. Or it could be fluctuations are high because people are saying whatever pops into their heads to get back to their Springer reruns and TV dinners.

Polls say about 30% of South Carolinians are undecided on their presidential choice at the moment. We think that number is probably closer to 40%, and that’s only when you force people to stop what they’re doing, focus on the question and give a response. Probably 90% of people who said they were going to vote for a specific candidate “if the election were held today” answered the question like this:

“Uhhhh … ummm … (candidate’s name) … I guess.”

That number goes up to 99.9% if the television was on at the time.

Speaking of which, television has a lot to do with the lack of “cement” in the 2008 presidential polls for another reason, namely the fact that nobody has been on the boob tube in anything resembling a sustained way here in the Palmetto State at this stage of the race. On top of that, the few candidates who have aired TV ads have kept the focus of those ads purely biographical. Sure, the grassroots activists are incredibly passionate about their candidates, but other than that nobody really cares yet. And until the local airwaves are flooded with position ads that go beyond “Hi, my name is …,” any reasonable guess as to “who’s winning” is a lot like trying to handicap a horse race before the horses have even been born.

As much as the blizzard of presidential coverage would lead you to believe otherwise, our bet is that the average South Carolinian is much more concerned with Dale Earnhardt, Jr.’s racing team decision right now than they are with Decision 2008.

And then there’s football season, which in the South means that every straight male who isn’t employed by one of the campaigns completely tunes out any and all political chatter for three months … four months if Carolina and Clemson go to a bowl game.

It’s natural for political insiders to live and die by polling data, but at this point everybody needs take a deep breath and remember that the polls are all over the map because most folks just aren’t paying that much attention yet.

Speaking of which … it’s Springer time!



1. Sue Martin - June 17, 2007

Our family is supporting RON PAUL for president. He is the
only true conservative.

Would someone please step up to the plate and run against
Lindsey Graham Kennedy. we are sick of his arrogance.
Sure hope he moves to Mexico. Afterall, he is more
interested in taking care of the Mexican people than the
people who sent him to Washington.

2. FITSNews - June 18, 2007


That’s great news for the Paul campaign! Your family will probably double his vote total.


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